International
Macron's second 'grenade': Will Centrists-Left election 'arrangement' stave off far-right?
New Delhi, July 7 (IANS) The French are voting on Sunday in the second round of the crucial parliamentary elections, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists in a tacit alliance of convenience with the second-placed hard-left ensemble to ward off the far-right, which topped the first round. But does Macron’s second risky gambit in two months – “a second grenade” – have any chance of success?
The chances appear minimal in the high-stakes election, which will not only determine his – and France’s – fate but is likely to impact that of Europe and the European Union.
Smarting from his party’s defeat to the far-right in the European Parliament elections in June, Macron took a major gamble. His largely unilateral decision to call snap parliamentary elections, seemingly leaving his own government taken aback – as per their shocked expressions in a photo of the cabinet meeting – was reportedly likened by him to throwing “an unpinned grenade at their (far-right’s) feet”.
However, the explosion seems to have backfired – quite spectacularly – on Macron and his party.
Le-Pen’s party surged far ahead to end up with almost a third of the vote in an election, which saw the highest turnout in several decades, the New Popular Front, of a gamut of Left parties, was in second place, and Macron’s Ensemble the distant third with just a fifth of the vote.
Following this, came Macron’s second desperate gambit or “second grenade” – of entering into a loose alliance with the Left alliance to prevent division of votes and set up one-to-one contests against the National Rally in the second round.
While 289 seats are required to win a majority, the complex French political system entails a second round, in which candidates, whose support did not reach 12.5 per cent of all locally registered voters in the first round, are eliminated. Only those who secure 50 per cent of the vote with a turnout of at least one-fourth of the local electorate win automatically in the first round.
It is the second round, to slightly over 500 seats of the 577-member Assembly, that is taking place on Friday and is liable to throw up a range of outcomes.
One eventuality could be that Marie Le-Pen’s far-right National Rally, with the youthful Jordan Bardella its face, retains its surge to attain a majority – or get close to it – in the Assembly, despite the hastily cobbled-up alliance against it.
This was the likely prospect till a few days ago but seems a bit difficult now.
A final opinion poll, conducted by Ipsos-Talan for Le Monde, France Televisions and Radio France on Friday, had the National Rally peaking at around 210, followed by the New Popular Front approaching 180, but Macron’s Ensemble only near 140.
Even if the arrangement which saw either Macron’s Ensemble members or members of the Left alliance withdraw from nearly 300 of the 500 seats up for grabs in the second round to set up a one-to-one fight with Le-Pen’s party, succeeds, the beneficiary will not be Macron himself.
This particular outcome is also predicated on the ability of Macron’s party and the Left to ensure the seamless and comprehensive transfer of votes to each other’s remaining candidate and whether the people will accept it, It must be recalled that Macron, till the first round, was telling the people that the victory of either the far-right or the hard left was likely to lead to a “civil war” in the nation.
Even if, the centrists and the resurgent left manage a majority, it makes for an uneasy alliance between the two forces, and in any way, hamstring Macron’s ability to pass legislation. Cohabitation, as this eventuality is generally called, with different parties holding the presidency and the majority in the parliament is not unprecedented in French politics, having occurred thrice in the previous four decades – and not very successfully.
It happened twice in the term of Socialist President Francois Mitterrand (1981-95), when he had to share power with conservative Prime Ministers Jacques Chirac (1986-88) and Edouard Balladur (1993-95). Chirac, who became President himself in 1995, faced the same situation in 1997-2002 when his decision to call a snap parliamentary election led to the victory of the socialists led by Lionel Jospin.
It is Chirac’s step that Macron seems to have followed but only time will reveal the particular outcome for him.
However, while Macron has asserted his intention to remain President till the end of his term in 2027, irrespective of the result of the parliamentary election, the victory of his antagonists – whether from left or right – would shadow his remaining years in power, given he cannot call another election for another year.
Grenades can be rather unpredictable weapons, as Macron is learning – much to his present disadvantage and to his legacy.
(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)
–IANS
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Lee Hsien Yang, the youngest son of Singapore’s founding father, the late Lee Kuan Yew, announced on Tuesday that he is now a political refugee in the United Kingdom after seeking asylum from the British government “as a last resort.”
“I remain a Singapore citizen and hope that someday it will be safe to return home,” Lee stated in a Facebook post, as reported by Channel News Asia (CNA).
Citing what he described as the Singapore government’s “attacks” against him, Lee, who is the younger brother of former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, revealed that he sought asylum protection in 2022.
Lee Hsien Yang and his late sister, Lee Wei Ling, who passed away earlier this month, have been in conflict with their brother Lee Hsien Loong over the fate of their father’s home following his death in 2015, resulting in a public dispute that has estranged the siblings.
In an interview with the UK-based newspaper The Guardian, Lee alleged that a “campaign of persecution” compelled him to seek asylum in Britain.
In response to his claims, the Singapore government stated that there is “no basis” for his allegations of “a campaign of persecution” or other assertions regarding political repression in the country.
“Singapore’s judiciary is impartial and makes decisions independently. This is why Singaporeans have a high level of trust in the judiciary,” a government spokesperson remarked.
The spokesperson added that there are no legal restrictions preventing Lee and his wife, lawyer Lee Suet Fern, from returning to Singapore. “They are and have always been free to return to Singapore,” the spokesperson said.
Lee and his wife have been outside of Singapore since 2022, having opted not to attend a scheduled police interview regarding potential offenses related to providing false evidence in judicial proceedings concerning their father’s will and the family home.
Lee and his late sister, who had been living at the property, alleged they felt threatened while trying to fulfill their father’s wish to demolish the house. They also accused their elder brother, former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, of abusing his governmental influence to advance his personal agenda.
Kazan, Russia: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit.
During the meeting, President Putin remarked, “I recall our meeting in July, where we had productive discussions on various issues. We’ve also spoken over the phone several times. I am very grateful you accepted the invitation to come to Kazan. Today, we will attend the BRICS Summit’s opening ceremony, followed by dinner.”
PM Modi responded by expressing his appreciation, saying, “I sincerely thank you for your friendship, warm welcome, and hospitality. It’s a great pleasure to visit such a beautiful city as Kazan for the BRICS Summit. India shares deep historical ties with this city, and the opening of our new embassy here will further strengthen these connections.”
Vientiane (Laos), Aug 22 (IANS) Representatives from the Lao government and development partners have attended a conference here titled “Climate Change and Nutrition in Laos: Intersections and Interventions” to discuss the impact of climate change on nutrition in the Southeast Asia country and potential solutions.
Speaking at the conference, deputy director general of the Department of Hygiene and Health Promotion under the Lao Ministry of Health Viengkhan Phixay, said, “We gather to address a critical and interwoven issue: the impact of climate change on nutrition and how we can work together to tackle these challenges,” Xinhua news agency reported.
The Lao government is actively engaged in this endeavor, with numerous policies and initiatives aimed at addressing both climate change and nutrition, Lao National Television reported on Thursday.
“By leveraging the Scaling Up Nutrition network in Laos, which is led by the government, and supported by civil society, donors, and the United Nations, we have a robust platform to tackle the negative impacts of climate change while improving nutrition and overall health for everyone in Laos,” Viengkham said at the conference held on Monday.
The conference featured a series of presentations that not only detailed evidence-based research but also introduced innovative tools for measuring and enhancing nutrition under the impact of climate change.
The conference stressed the critical need for integrated approaches to tackle the intertwined challenges of climate change and nutrition, and setting the stage for impactful future collaborations.
–IANS
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Baghdad, Aug 22 (IANS) A civilian was killed while seven others were injured on Thursday in a tribal shootout in Iraq’s holy Shiite province of Najaf, according to a local security source.
The shootout erupted in the early hours between armed men from the local tribe in the al-Zarga area in northern Najaf, some 160 km south of Baghdad, a local police officer told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
The clash resulted in the killing of an Iraqi civilian and the injury of seven others, including three Iranian Shiite pilgrims, the source added.
A joint force from the Interior Ministry’s emergency response division and Najaf provincial police arrested 53 gunmen from both sides of the shootout and seized weapons and ammunition, the Interior Ministry said in a statement.
It added that search operations are ongoing to locate additional gunmen and weapons, with more details to be released later.
The incident took place as numerous pilgrims traveled to the city of Karbala to observe Arbaeen, which marks the end of a 40-day mourning period for the killing of Imam Hussein, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad, in the Battle of Karbala in 680 A.D.
Typically, these pilgrims also visit Najaf as part of their journey to Karbala.
–IANS
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Dhaka, Aug 22 (IANS) Bangladesh’s interim government has sought $1 billion from the World Bank as budgetary support.
The call came from the country’s Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan’s meeting with Abdoulaye Seck, the World Bank’s Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan, in Dhaka on Wednesday.
He made the plea as the ministry owes more than 2 billion dollars to suppliers in import costs of power and energy, Xinhua news agency reported.
Khan mentioned that the interim government, which was formed with many pressing mandates, is due to settle a $2 billion debt left by the previous government in the power sector.
He said they have already suspended activities under the much-criticized Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply Act 2010 and abolished the government’s power to set energy prices without any public hearing.
On August 5, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted from her country and power, ending her rule since January 2009.
This event was seen as a massive escalation, with what initially started as student’s protests and resulted in a major crisis in Bangladesh.
Earlier on August 8, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took oath as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government.
–IANS
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