Businesses
Markets look tired, weakness to continue; best to stick to large cap route
Mumbai, Feb 11 (IANS) It was an extremely volatile week in which one saw intraday gains being wiped out as well as opening losses being more than recovered.
At the end of it all, markets gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three. BSESENSEX was down 490.14 points or 0.68 per cent to close at 71,595.49 points; NIFTY lost 71.30 points or 0.33 per cent to close at 21,782.50 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.22 per cent, 0.34 per cent and 0.22 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.65 per cent but BSESMALLCAP was down 0.44 per cent.
Intraday volatility and intraweek volatility has increased substantially in the midcap and Smallcap space and the net index changes at the end of the week do not give a fair picture of the volatility.
The Indian Rupee lost 12 paise or 0.14 per cent to close at Rs 83.04 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two sessions. At the end of the week, Dow was up a mere 17.27 points or 0.04 per cent to close at 38,671.69 points.
At the end of the three-day bi-monthly meeting of the monetary policy committee meeting, RBI kept repo rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent. These rates have not been changed since February 2023.
Markets have become very volatile and are giving some signs of a reasonably large correction happening in the coming period. For the records, the high on the BSESENSEX was made on 16th January at 73,427.59 points and on NIFTY at 22,124.15 points on the same day. In a flash of a pan movement, NIFTY crossed this high by a whisker at 22,126.80 points on February 2.
What to make of this is debatable as BSESENSEX made a substantially lower high as compared to January 16 of 73,089.40 points. Looking at the fact that with just the last week left for results of the October-December 2023 quarter to be declared, the general summary indicates that the growth in revenue being talked about seems missing.
There have been some outstanding results, but the pace of growth in revenues and profits is clearly missing. For the new trend to emerge we will now have to wait for yet another quarter at the bare minimum. This would also coincide with the general elections which would be held in April-May 2024.
In primary market news we had four issues which closed for subscription during the week. The first was Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited which had tapped the markets with its fresh issue of Rs 600 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 320 crore. The price band was Rs 147-155.
The issue was subscribed 62.90 times overall with the QIB portion subscribed 79.23 times, HNI portion subscribed 55.25 times and Retail portion subscribed 31.96 times there were 18.95 lac applications.
The second issue was from Rashi Peripherals Limited which had tapped the markets with its fresh issue of Rs 600 crore in a price band of Rs 295-311.The issue was subscribed 62.95 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 151.45 times, HNI portion subscribed 66.15 times and Retail portion subscribed 11 times. There were 15.07 lac applications.
The third issue was from Jana Small Finance Bank Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 462 crs and an offer for sale of 26,08,629 equity shares. The price band of the issue was Rs 393-414. The issue was subscribed 18.43 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 38.75 times, HNI portion subscribed 25.05 times and Retail portion subscribed 5.46 times. There were 7.04 lac application forms in all.
The fourth issue was from Capital Small Finance Bank Limited. The company intended raising Rs 450 crore in a fresh issue and an offer for sale of 15,61,329 shares in a price band of Rs 445-468. The issue was subscribed 4.17 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 6.86 times, HNI portion subscribed 4.23 times and Retail subscribed 2.60 times. There were 4.17 lac applications in all.
The subscription comparison between Jana Small Finance Bank and Capital Small Finance Bank Limited was stark. Both the issues were of similar size, a fairly similar price band and coincidentally in the same business, small finance bank.
The valuation and direct comparison resulted in one being well-received and doing well and the other just getting subscribed at a time when markets are overflowing with funds, big learning for merchant bankers and prospective promoters looking to tap the markets going forward.
There is one issue in the coming week which has already opened on Friday, February 9, and closes on Tuesday, February 13. The issue from Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 1,000 crore and an offer for sale of 47,69,475 shares in a price band of Rs 1,195 to 1,248. The company is into the business of distributing healthcare products in India.
Entero Healthcare Solutions is the third largest in terms of revenues in this space. It distributes pharmaceuticals and also has a range of white label products in healthcare devices and related products which currently form a small part of its overall revenues.
The company has been growing its presence in the country by acquiring small well-established distributors across geographies and then converting them into subsidiaries. The idea is to have a well-knit all India presence which uses technology to achieve last mile distribution of these products.
The company achieved revenues of Rs 3,300 crore for the year ended March 2023 and reported a net loss of Rs 11.10 crore for the same period. Revenues for the half year ended September 23 have improved to Rs 1,895 crore and the company has turned profitable for the first time and earned a profit of Rs 11.64 crore.
In terms of EPS, as the company has reported losses for the year ended March 31, 2023 and therefore the EPS is negative Rs 3.10. The same is positive for the first six months at Rs 2.95.
The only comparable player in the listed space which has a similar business model in part is Medplus. The other comparable price matrix for companies is price to book. The NAV of the company post conversion of CCCP as at September 23 is Rs 185.84.
This effectively means that the company is asking for a price to book of 6.71 times. The business is complex, needs time to stabilise and achieve a decent profitability. Readers could look at the share post listing.
Coming to the markets in the week ahead, volatility would be the order of the day. On the upside levels of 73,427 on BSESENSEX and 22,126 on NIFTY would be Mount Everest. I believe these need a superhuman effort with massive index management and accompanied by very strong news flow to be taken out. Suffice to say that without consolidation, this is something which cannot happen.
On the support side, levels of 21,500 and 70,750 would act as decent levels where markets would look to bounce. If these are broken, then levels of 21,200 and 69,850 would act as solid supports for the time being. Depending on how markets behave, future movement in key indices would be decided.
A note of caution would be that there could be a reason for a sharp fall in the markets over a couple of days. This could happen in this week or the next. The trading strategy would continue to book profits on rallies and reduce exposure in the midcap and Smallcap space. Safety lies in the large cap space where buying should be done only on sharp dips.
Trade cautiously.
–IANS
kejriwal/dan
Businesses
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore
Investors’ wealth eroded by a massive Rs 9.19 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets came under heavy sell-off with the BSE benchmark index Sensex falling 930.55 points.
Extending its previous day’s decline, the BSE Sensex plummeted 930.55 points or 1.15 per cent to settle at 80,220.72. During the day, it tanked 1,001.74 points or 1.23 per cent to 80,149.53.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 9,19,374.52 crore to Rs 4,44,45,649.22 crore (USD 5.29 trillion). “There has been no respite from FIIs selling in local equities in the current month so far, which has been creating uncertainty among domestic investors.
Also, foreign investors are fleeing Indian equities to invest in relatively cheaper locations such as China, especially after the stimulus announcement by its government to boost its slowing economy.
“Along with sectoral stocks, mid and smallcap stocks too bore the brunt as persistent buying had led to valuations in several stocks getting expensive and hence the breather,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, said.
From the 30 Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, ICICI Bank, Nestle and Infosys were the gainers from the pack.
Businesses
NITI Aayog shares a $300 billion economy roadmap for Mumbai Metropolitan Region
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) The NITI Aayog in its presentation to the Maharashtra government on Thursday suggested a roadmap for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) to become a $300 billion economy by 2030 from the present $140 billion.
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during his meeting with Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, suggested that the state can achieve this ambitious target with the promotion of MMR as global services’ hub, affordable housing and slum rehabilitation, tourism, port-proximate integrated manufacturing and logistics hub, planned urbanisation and intensive transport oriented development, sustainability projects and world-class urban infrastructure and transport.
NITI Aayog has said that the state government can attract a private investment of $125-135 billion, incremental GDP growth of $130-150 billion and additional capital by the state government of the order of Rs 50,000 crore over 5-6 years to chase the goal of making MMR a $300 billion economy.
“MMR is a $140 billion economy across 5 districts and covering 9 municipal corporations with a 25.8 million population and 10 million jobs. Good news is that MMR is on a positive growth trajectory on the back of $50 billion ongoing infrastructure investments. Our vision is to grow MMR into a $300 billion economy by 2030 and $1.5 trillion economy by 2047,” said Subrahmanyam in the presentation.
According to NITI Aayog, MMR has a potential to become a global services hub due to the existing two world-class business districts, Wadala and BKC for financial services and after the development of Navi Mumbai Aerocity as a global aviation city.
It has suggested that the rehabilitation of 2.2 million slums will create new housing stocks in addition to around 1 million affordable housing for low income and middle income group segments.
NITI Aayog has suggested the state can promote two themed tourism development hubs at Gorai and Madh and Alibaug and implement a masterplan for a 300 km coastline.
Further, the MMR can promote port proximate integrated manufacturing and logistic hub with the development of Kharbav integrated logistic cluster as a multi-modal logistic park, circular economy parks and electronic manufacturing and manufacturing cluster for white goods assembly at Khalapur-Panvel section.
In the wake of the development of Rs 76,000 crore Vadhavan port, NITI Aayog has suggested that it can be exploited for the promotion of green hydrogen, steel, chemicals, integrated textiles and apparels.
Further, the NITI Aayog has suggested that the government should release a slew of policies for services, tourism, affordable housing, and transport-oriented development. In addition, the government will have to craft investment promotion and land allocation policy, simplified and enabling urban planning policies, women-inclusivity blueprint and Green MMR policy.
Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has said that the government is focusing on the construction of affordable housing, development of a data center in Navi Mumbai, and completion of Alibaug Multimodal Corridor. Recently, the state government has cleared projects with an investment of Rs 80,000 crore. The government has stepped up efforts to promote tourism along the 720 km coastline.
(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)
–IANS
sj/pgh
Businesses
Finance Ministry sees food inflation easing further on back of better monsoon
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) Inflationary pressures in the Indian economy eased in July and food inflation is expected to come down further with this year’s better monsoon leading to higher agricultural production, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index eased from 5.1 per cent in June 2024 to 3.5 per cent in July 2024, the lowest since September 2019.
This was mainly due to a significant fall in food inflation. It declined to 5.4 per cent in July 2024 from 9.4 per cent in June 2024, the review states.
The substantial fall witnessed in food inflation was helped majorly by a decline in vegetable inflation from 29.3 per cent in June 2024 to 6.8 per cent in July 2024 and mild deflation in ‘oils and fats’ and spices.
On the other hand, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) was at a moderate level of 3.3 per cent in July 2024.
Overall, the retail inflation rate moderated to 4.6 per cent in the first four months of FY25 as compared to 5.3 per cent in FY24 (April-July), according to the review.
With moderate core inflation and positive progress in the monsoon, the headline inflation outlook is positive. Assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 per cent by the RBI, with Q2 inflation at 4.4 per cent.
A steady progress in the southwest monsoon has supported agricultural activity. The cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 3 per cent higher than the long-period average up to August 19, 2024. Further, the spatial distribution has improved, with 84 per cent of subdivisions receiving normal or excess rainfall. This has enabled healthy Kharif sowing.
As of August 16, the actual sowing area under total foodgrains was 4.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of the previous year, while progress in cereals and pulses was 4.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent higher than the previous year.
Corresponding to healthy progress in monsoon, availability of water level in reservoirs improving, ensuring water adequacy for irrigation during current Kharif and upcoming rabi crop production. The storage availability in 150 reservoirs as of August 15, was 111 per cent of the corresponding period of last year and 114 per cent of the average storage of the last ten years, according to the Central Water Commission. This augurs well for healthy food production that will aid in cooling food inflation in the upcoming months. Further, to enhance productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector, various measures have been announced in the Union Budget FY25, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/vd
Businesses
Indian economy is on upswing: Finance Ministry
New Delhi, Aug 22 (IANS) The Indian economy experienced a notable upswing across various economic indicators in July 2024, signalling strong and resilient business activities with both the manufacturing and services sectors posting a robust performance, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly review released on Thursday.
“The month saw impressive milestones being reached, substantial growth in GST collections, and a significant rise in e-way bill generation, which points to an overall increase in economic activity. The stock market indices also reached record highs in July,” the review states.
On balance, India’s economic momentum remains intact. Despite a somewhat erratic monsoon, reservoirs have been replenished. Manufacturing and services sectors are expanding, going by the Purchasing Managers’ indices. Tax collections – especially indirect taxes, which reflect transactions – are growing healthily, and so is bank credit, according to the review.
Inflation is moderating, and exports of both goods and services are doing better than they did last year. Stock markets are holding on to their levels. Foreign direct investment is looking up as gross inflows are rising, the review states.
Gross GST collections for July 2024 maintained their momentum, achieving their second-highest level since May 2023. The total gross GST revenue rose by 10.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY), bringing the total for FY 25 (April to July) to Rs 7.4 lakh crore.
This increase in GST collections also highlights robust compliance and expansion of GST coverage across various economic activities.
The upward level shift is reflected in the average monthly GST collections rising from Rs 1.68 lakh crore in FY24 to Rs 1.85 lakh crore in FY25.
The year-on-year increase in e-way bills reached a nine-month peak of 19.2 per cent with the total number of e-way bills issued in July surging to 10.5 crore, setting a new single-month record.
According to the review, the manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate robust performance in the first four months of FY25, as evidenced by the strong performance of various high-frequency indicators.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing, a crucial gauge of the economic vitality of the manufacturing sector, stood at 58.1 in July 2024, significantly above the series long-run average and among the highest recorded in recent years. This expansion, driven by buoyant demand conditions and a surge in production volumes, bodes well for the overall health of the economy.
Similarly, the service sector continued to perform well.
PMI services remained in an expansionary zone at 60.3 in July 2024, driven by expansion in international sales, an increase in new order uptakes, and a rise in new export orders.
Despite a rise in wages and material costs which pushed up business expenses, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry induced by leisure travel, business travel, and social events, the Finance Ministry said.
–IANS
sps/pgh
Businesses
Sensex closes 147 pts up 81,053, Nifty above 24,800
Mumbai, Aug 22 (IANS) Indian stock markets again closed higher on Thursday due to positive sentiment in the markets.
At closing, Sensex was up 147 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 81,053 and Nifty was up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,811.
The market’s positive sentiment was bolstered by optimistic global cues, particularly from the US markets, where the S&P 500 extended its winning streak, reflecting investor confidence amid expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
During the day, Sensex traded in the range of 80,954 to 81,236 and Nifty traded in the range of 24,784 to 24,867.
In the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Titan, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki and SBI were the top gainers. Tata Motors, M&M, Wipro, NTPC, TCS, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and Nestle are the top losers.
Thursday’s market rally was led by Nifty Bank which settled up 300 points or 0.59 per cent at 50,985.
Among the sectoral indices, PSU Bank, fin service, FMCG, metal, realty and Private bank were the major gainers. Pharma, IT and energy were the major laggards.
An upward trend was also seen in small and medium stocks in the trading session. The Nifty midcap 100 index was up 400 points or 0.69 per cent at 58,844 and the Nifty smallcap 100 index was at 19,099, up 32 points or 0.17 per cent.
According to market experts, the domestic market witnessed modest gains owing to positive global sentiments.
“Particularly, the recent signs of weakness in the US non-farm payroll data have strengthened the case for potential interest rate cuts in September. However, in the broader market, investors are being cautious, opting for a selective approach, awaiting more clarity from central bank leaders in Japan and the US,” they added.
–IANS
avs/vd
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